基于实时数据的纺纱质量异常因素预测方法的研究
2015-09-13 11:53:41   来源：   评论：0 点击：

 
摘要：为探究纺纱过程中质量波动的规律，预测产生系统误差的不确定性因素的理论依据，分析纺纱质量特征值波动的成因、规律，以及影响因素的产生机理及其关系；利用纺纱过程的实时数据，从纺纱质量波动规律表达、人—机—环境脆性模型构建，以及TARCH(1,1)模型对影响因素异常行为辨识三个方面对纺纱质量特征值波动的内在机理进行了建模与设计，进而提出了基于实时数据的纺纱质量波动预测方法。通过实验仿真与对比分析，结果表明：预测方法实现了纺纱质量特征值波动过程的可视化，做到了影响因素异常行为的事前预警以及成纱质量的实时在线监测。
关键词：纺纱质量；波动机理；异常因素；实时数据；人—机—环境模型
中图分类号：TS103.2  文献标志码：A  文章编号：1001-9634(2015)05-0009-06
 
收稿日期：2015-02-04
基金项目：陕西省科技计划项目(2013KRM07)；陕西省社科基金项目(13D026)；陕西省社科界重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2014Z039)；中国纺织工业联合会指导性计划项目(2014076,2013068,2011081)；陕西省教育科学“十二五”规划课题(SGH140649)；陕西省教育厅科研计划项目(2013JK0742,11JK1055)
作者简介：王志刚(1981—)，男，陕西宝鸡人，硕士，工程师，主要研究方向为纺织生产过程管理。
   
Abstract:In order to find the regular pattern of spinning quality fluctuation rules,to predict uncertain factors of system error theory basis,analysis is done to the cause resulting in fluctuation of spinning quality eigenvalue,the regularity and the influence factors of the generation mechanism and the relationship;the spinning process of real time data,expression from the fluctuation of spinning yarn quality and construction of man-machine-environment brittleness model and TARCH (1,1) model of influencing factors of abnormal behavior identification intrinsic mechanism of three aspects on spinning quality characteristics value fluctuation modeling and design,and puts forward the prediction method based on real time data of spinning quality fluctuation.The simulation and comparative analysis finds that the prediction method realizes the spinning quality eigenvalue variation in the process of visualization,so that the influence factors of abnormal behavior of the advance warning and real time monitoring of the yarn quality.
Key Words:spinning quality;fluctuation mechanism;abnormal factors;real time data;human-machine-environment model
 
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